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Meteorology Monday: August 27 - September 2

Explorer A

After moving through some of our southern Florida stations, conditions following Isaac should be improving early this week for EYW, FLL, PBI, RSW, and TPA.  The storm appears to be next heading toward MSY, and possibly, PNS and ECP.  

We are keeping a close eye on Isaac as its current forecast track takes the storm right into New Orleans as a Category 1 Hurricane.  Along with the strong winds, this storm is also expected to be a huge rain maker.  Potentially 12-18 inches of rain is expected by the end of the day Wednesday somewhere along the LA, MS, and AL Gulf Coasts.  Elsewhere, expect a soggy beginning of the week in the Great Lakes and Northeast as a weak cold front pushes through, bringing scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms as it passes.  For the rest of the week, it clears out in the Northeast, and Isaac will dominate the weather as it moves on shore, and probably into the central part of the country late in the week into next weekend.

Here are this week’s weather highlights, mostly emphasizing Tropical Storm/Hurricane Isaac:

  • Tropical Storm Isaac is currently about 200 miles WSW of TPA and about 440 miles SE of MSY, moving WNW at 14 mph.  Isaac has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph, with tropical storm force winds extending 240 miles out from the center.
  • The current forecast track of Isaac has MSY in its direct path; however, Florida is also still feeling impacts from the storm as well, as the outer bands of showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds continue throughout the day on Monday.  Along with those bands comes a threat of funnel clouds and short-lived tornadoes.
  • Another risk with this tropical system is the amount of rainfall expected along the Gulf Coast in LA, MS, AL, and the FL Panhandle.  Since the storm is expected to slow down some, before making landfall, copious amounts of rainfall are expected through Wednesday, with an estimate of 12-18 inches of rain possible over the next couple of days (with up to ten inches possible on Tuesday and Tuesday night alone!).
  • Gradual strengthening of this Tropical Storm is also expected, and Isaac is forecast to become a Category 1 Hurricane sometime prior to making landfall overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday.
  • MSY should expect to have increasing winds starting overnight Monday into Tuesday.  Tropical Storm force winds are likely at MSY by midday Tuesday, and Hurricane force winds are possible late Tuesday evening/night.  Any impacts to PNS and/or ECP will likely begin late Monday evening into Tuesday.

Have an excellent week!

This information is not intended for dispatching purposes.