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Odds of Getting Covid 19 on a Plane: Very Small

dfwskier
Aviator A

"According to his (Arnold Bennett,   professor of statistics at MIT)   findings, based on short haul flights in the US on aircraft configured with three seats on either side of the aisle, such as the Airbus 320 and the Boeing 737 -- and assuming everyone is wearing a mask -- the risk of catching the virus on a full flight is just 1 in 4,300. Those odds fall to 1 in 7,700 if the middle seat is vacant.

 

...

 

"Three  things have to go wrong for you to get infected (on a flight). There has to be a Covid-19 patient on board and they have to be contagious," he says. "If there is such a person on your flight, assuming they are wearing a mask, it has to fail to prevent the transmission.
"They also have to be close enough that there's a danger you could suffer from the transmission."
 
4 REPLIES 4

Re: Odds of Getting Covid 19 on a Plane: Very Small

chgoflyer
Aviator A

For me, the takeaway from this, and other recently published similar studies, is that mask compliance is key. I applaud Southwest for having strict mask policies, and I'm hopeful that enforcement can become more consistent, for the protection of everyone.

 

 

Re: Odds of Getting Covid 19 on a Plane: Very Small

DancingDavidE
Aviator A

@chgoflyer wrote:

For me, the takeaway from this, and other recently published similar studies, is that mask compliance is key. I applaud Southwest for having strict mask policies, and I'm hopeful that enforcement can become more consistent, for the protection of everyone.

 


It's just the statistics - the masks make a smaller radius around someone who may not even know they are emitting virus.* An empty middle seat is larger than that radius. The purpose of the masks are to stop a direct stream from someone else's breath, cough, sneeze, etc. The premise of masks stopping the spread in general is more or less independent of the mask being a filter. 

 

As far as a mask protecting you  - like being in the swimming pool, now you need a real filter - get one that does if this is your goal. There are higher quality / performance options. Our medical establishment wearing their PPE is an example of that. I know they were scarce at the start of the pandemic but there seems to be availability now. 

 

*This is informal - but with State of Illinois running around 3% positivity for all testing which includes people coming in for testing because they have symptoms, compared to the U of I testing of everyone in the student body which returned about 6% of students positive. The 3% figure includes some people that are asymptomatic, testing the whole student body found quite a few more asymptomatic people. Someone must be reviewing this already but the first glance findings show perhaps 3x as many asymptomatic. That's why we can't get a handle on the spread as a society.

 

Home airport MDW, frequent visitor to MCO to see the mouse.

Re: Odds of Getting Covid 19 on a Plane: Very Small

jksobonya
Aviator A

Yep, I posted this a few weeks ago when the article came out. It really put things in perspective for me and made me more comfortable. I wish everyone would read it!

 

https://community.southwest.com/t5/Travel-Policies/The-odds-of-catching-Covid-19-on-an-airplane-are-... 

 

--Jessica

Odds of Getting Covid 19 on a Plane: Very Small

SWFlyer007
Aviator C

The data is great.  I still bring my own disinfectant on board, I think it's just great protocol and wish everybody would board, pull out their wipes, and rub down.  nothing wrong with that unless you leave the wipe in the seat...THROW them away.  we can look at it as chipping in.