02-22-2008
01:05 PM
447 Loves
Ever since I was a kid, I have been addicted game shows. Growing up, on the days I wasn't in school, I watched them incessantly. Some were totally silly, but fun–remember "Match Game" with Gene Rayburn? It was absolute sex-laced trash, but it made a 14-year-old feel sooooo "hip" to laugh at the double entendres thrown out by Charles Nelson Reilley and Bret Somers. Then there were just plane goofy ones, like "Press Your Luck" (BIG BUCKS!!!! BIG BUCKS!!!! NOOOOOOO WHAMMIES!!!!)
I particularly loved shows that tested the contestant's knowledge, like "Password" with Allen Ludden (and the hushed voice of the announcer when the word flashed up on the screen as he whispered –"the password is……[insert word here]") and "Concentration" with the venerable Hugh Downs (I still remember the sound those weird, scary puzzle pieces made when they flipped them around, and flipped them back). What I loved wasn't just the lure of instant riches, although that was pretty cool. I loved and admired the knowledge, the trivia, the imagination that game show contestants had to have to win. This is what started my passion for odd and obscure trivia, which endures to this day. I still play a mean game of Trivial Pursuit. :)
Later, during college, I got hooked on "The $10,000 Pyramid" with Dick Clark. It got so bad that I actually scheduled classes around the show. By the time I graduated and was working for my first airline, two things had changed: one, the show had been promoted to "The $25,000 Pyramid," and two, I had the ability as an airline employee to travel to Los Angeles to audition. I began auditioning in 1983, and never got past the second callback for quite a while. However, in 1986, I did. And on a July evening of that year, my phone rang, and I was invited to be a contestant on the show. I nearly fell out of my chair.
Our taping date was in about two weeks, and while I spent the next fourteen days feverishly watching episodes of the show that I'd videotaped and playing along, my former spouse spent her time looking for the new house we'd buy with the massive amount of money she was certain I'd win. The night before taping, my former spouse and I flew to Los Angeles, and the morning of the show we drove to CBS Studio City, where I was taken with the other contestants for that day's shows into the bowels of the studio.
Three hours later, I walked out….a loser. I lost both rounds by a single point. In round one, with the word being "eraser" I got buzzed and lost a point for using part of the word (to this day, I maintain that I was stammering and saying "um, er" trying to think of a way to describe the pink end of a pencil!). In round two, the "star" somehow thought it was acceptable to try and get me to say "bra" by shouting out "A LADIES BRASSIERE!" (he obviously didn't understand the etymology of the word "bra"). I played fast. I played well. And I still lost. It was a loooooong, silent drive back to LAX, and an even longer, quieter flight back to DFW.
Game shows have really evolved since then. Of course, we still have "Jeopardy!" (which I also auditioned for, once–the test they administer is akin to taking the S.A.T.) and, of course "Wheel Of Fortune," but while most game shows in the '60s, '70s and '80s were thirty-minute daytime events, game shows today have mostly become one-hour marathons aired during prime time. Today's contestants are all beautiful with perfect pearly-white teeth. And I still watch most all of them, when I can. "Deal, Or No Deal" is wonderfully watchable, although I always wonder if it's scripted. "Are You Smarter Than A Fifth Grader" is just a hoot, mostly because I've always been redneck enough to like show host Jeff Foxworthy. And the "vote-off" game shows" like "American Idol" and "Survivor" are wonderful…if stressful!
I've not auditioned for a show since 1986, but I think I may make yet another run at it. For example, I'd LOVE for the Blog Team here at "Nuts About Southwest!" to be part of the "mob" on "1 vs. 100" with Bob Saget. I mean, PEOPLE–how cool would that be? We might not win much, but it'd be fun to see how we'd fare playing against such diverse other mobsters as Victoria's Secret models, prison guards, and drag queens. And members of the mob keep playing until they lose–so eventually, maybe we could win at least enough for a nice celebratory dinner!
The other show I would KILL to get on is "The Amazing Race." Gee…an airline geek, who has to maintain a working knowledge of geography, airports, and the schedules of airlines all over the world, on a round-the-world travel game? I smell a winner here. I would of course have my kid, Officer Owen, as my partner–he could do all the heavy lifting, physical challenges, and act as my personal bodyguard, while I'd do all the food challenges and handle the travel. Talk about having all of your bases covered! But that show requires a commitment of being away from home for weeks on end. As nice as John and Pete, Schedule Planning Bosses, and Colleen and Gary are…I wouldn't want to, ahem, "press my luck."
Who knows…maybe you'll see me on another game show. Or maybe not. It may be just as fun, and less stressful, to watch someone else sweat. Of course, that means someone else wins the money, too, so I'll keep mulling the option over in my mind. But in the meantime, if you see a repeat of "The $25,000 Pyramid" on the Game Show Network, think of me. And if you see a guy in one of the episodes that looks like a much younger, trimmer, and less gray version of me…change the channel. He didn't win.
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Ah, Mark and Brian, but don't forget where my little furry friend did his final "laps." Not sure I want to fricasee anything that arrived at my house via the sewer pipes, no matter how tasty the recipe!!!
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01-18-2008
11:02 AM
485 Loves
People that know me also know that bizarre things happen to me. Frequently. If I were followed 24/7 by a camera crew, I could have my own TV show. Think "America's Funniest Home Videos" with liberal dashes of "I Love Lucy" and "The Jerry Springer Show" thrown in for good measure.
For example, I blew up my pool filter a few years back by mixing algaecide and shock (when they say don't mix chemicals, they really mean it!), almost commiting self-immolation. My son, panicking, called 911, and every neighbor I have looked over the fence to watch the paramedics examine the burns on my arms. Another time, after construction began on a new subdivision behind my house, I stuck my hand into my kitchen pantry--only to have a little field mouse, ostensibly one that had moved in with me after its little den had been disturbed by the construction, ran up my arm. I did what any red-blood American male would do--screamed like a little girl and flailed my arm like a windmill in a hurricane. Unfortunately, that flung the mouse across the kitchen, and it landed on the head of my sleeping 160-lb. labrador retriever, who jumped up, freaked out, and in his gyrations trying to remove said mouse from his head he knocked at full velocity into the wall, where I put a large hole in the sheetrock.
So this morning...I got up, on schedule, and stumbled into my bathroom to do what everyone tends to do in their bathroom first thing in the morning. And there...in my toilet...was a squirrel. A DEAD squirrel. Floating placidly in the toilet bowl and staring up at me. I rubbed my eyes a few times to make sure I wasn't seeing things, and when the deceased animal didn't disappear, I figured it was real. So there I stood, speechless, wondering what the heck I should do about it.
After quickly looking around the bathroom to make sure there weren't any other squirrels coming to my waterlogged little visitor's funeral, I went into the kitchen and returned to the bathroom with the only utensil I could think of for the situation--the kitchen tongs. It should come as no surprise to anyone that the little critter was semi-stuck in the bowl, and it took a number of increasingly sharp tugs before it popped out. At that point, I realized I hadn't completely thought this through, as I had no clue how to dispose of a soaking wet, dripping, dead rodent. So, back into the toilet bowl went the squirrel for one more quick swim, while I went back to the kitchen and got a plastic WalMart bag. I sprinted back to the bathroom, extricated the squirrel one last time, and into the bag he went.
My trash gets picked up twice a week, and the next pickup isn't for a few days. So, until then, my furry little roommate is sleeping quietly in my freezer. Unless somebody can think of something else to do with him, anyway. Anyone got a good recipe for squirrel gumbo?
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01-09-2008
03:37 PM
322 Loves
Many, if not most, of you have either read or heard of Spencer Johnson's best-selling book, Who Moved My Cheese? which examines, in parable form, living in (and adapting to) a rapidly-changing environment. Well, the airline industry may just be the poster child of quick and constant change, and at Southwest we've become so used to changes that using the phrase "moving my cheese" has become a metaphor understood throughout our Company for going through transformation of one sort or another.
I've blogged before about how optimization technology has allowed Schedule Planning to make much bigger changes to our network than in the past, and for Summer 2008, Southwest is moving our schedule's "cheese" like never before. Gary Kelly, our CEO, has been very up-front about our need to strategically change our flight offerings to better reflect changing demand in this period of uncertain economic conditions, and our Summer 2008 Schedule is clearly reflective of that need (yes, Gary, we listened!). In all, we've changed the number of nonstop flights in 81 roundtrip markets– increasing (or beginning!) nonstop service in 30 markets, and reducing service in 51 markets. This represents the largest single schedule change, at least in the number of markets impacted, in Southwest history. In fact, for the first time, we are able to make seasonal frequency changes to better match our schedule with Summer demand, so some of these flight increases (or decreases) will be re-adjusted once the leaves start changing colors in the Autumn. However, unlike in previous significant frequency changes, Southwest is not completely eliminating nonstop service in any single market–instead, these changes are far more surgical, for the most part only changing by one or two departures each day.
The increases are far more interesting–and, of course, a lot more fun to talk about. You could say the list of new markets we will be entering is, ahem, a "Mile High!" The new markets we'll be adding in this schedule can be summed up in one word….DENVER! During the Summer 2008, Southwest will add brand-new nonstop service between Denver and SIX more destinations–Los Angeles (LAX), San Jose, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Raleigh/Durham, and San Antonio. We'll also add extra flights between Denver and Austin, Albuquerque, and Chicago. After these increases are in place, Southwest will offer 79 daily departures from Denver International Airport every business day–making it the 15th busiest Station of the 64 airports served on the Southwest Airlines network. Not too shabby for a destination we just started (or, as it were, re-started!) two years ago!
Besides all other changes coming this Summer, we've got a number of other schedule improvements that will roll out in May '08–most of them designed to deliver better ontime performance and to enhance overall efficiency and profitability. We've been really, really busy moving our cheese….so whether you like cheddar, jack, or gorgonzola, we hope you'll really like flying around the Southwest Airlines system this coming summer. We'll keep you–and your cheese–moving!
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12-18-2007
10:27 AM
458 Loves
I lost my 79-year-old mom on Tuesday, December 11, after a short but severe illness. Because I've shared so many other aspects of my life with my friends in the Blogosphere, I wanted to share this very sad part of my life with you too, give you a few little details about my sweet Mom, and then let you know (again) how wonderful Southwest Airlines is.
My Mom, Dorothy, was born in Ft. Worth in September of 1928. She lived through the Great Depression, which helped give her a sense of incredible frugality. Until the very end of her life, if there were three green beans left after dinner, they'd go into a plastic butter tub in the refrigerator, and would be served to unsuspecting family members on "Mustgo" night–when everything that "must go" from the refrigerator had to be eaten before it spoiled. I can happily report that Mom never once caused a case of food poisoning... at least none that we were legally informed of.
During High School in Ft. Worth, Mom met the man she described as the "best looking Naval enlistee she'd ever seen." They instantly realized they were soul mates, and of course, he would become my Dad. Soon, though, World War II separated them, and while my eventual Dad visited exotic ports-of-call like Shanghai, Manila and Honolulu, my Mom dipped ice cream at the Dolly Madison Ice Cream Shop in downtown Ft. Worth, put up with rationing, and took care of her brother and sister (my Uncle Doc and Aunt Louise). Dad may have defeated the Axis... but Mom defended the home front by protecting and supporting her family. And she did it well.
When he came back in 1946, Mom and Dad married, and for more than a decade or so his job took them all over the state of Texas. They lived in Galveston, a block from the beach, close enough to the Gulf to hear the surf at night (and, according to Mom, to create a dusting nightmare due to the sea salt!). They spent time in Beaumont, where they bought a large boat which Dad named the "Dotsy Girl" after my Mom. On its maiden voyage, they were caught in a tropical thunderstorm and very nearly died. But, eventually, they perfected their seamanship skills and subsequently enjoyed many an hour on that boat.
They became parents when I arrived on the scene in 1958 (even as a premie, I qualified as "portly!"), followed by the arrival of my brother in 1962. They were GREAT parents, totally involved in every aspect of our lives, from my brother's baseball and football activities to my academics. They were the "fun" parents in the neighborhood. Even when my brother's friends, or mine, were mad at us, our friends would still come down to our house just to hang out with my parents–they'd just ignore my brother or me. It used to drive us crazy!
Eventually, after my brother I grew up and got married, Mom and Dad gained a new title in 1984–"grandparent"–when my son was born (he's Officer Owen, whom I've written about here on the Blog). True to form, they relished and excelled in the role of grandparenthood–they were able to spoil my kid rotten, then send him home with me at night. I don't think they ever missed a t-ball, soccer, or "Pop Warner" football game that he ever played. He was–and will evermore be–their "Little Buddy."
When Mom lost her soulmate to a car wreck in October of 1991, she drew on that incredible self-reliance she learned growing up in the Depression. Dad's death knocked her back, but it didn't knock her down. She grieved, of course, like we all did, but after a while she picked herself up–dusted herself off–and got on with the business of living. And her strength helped the rest of us carry on. She remained in the home she and Dad had shared (and the one in which my brother and I grew up in), took care of the yardwork and gardening herself until just the past six months or so, and generally kept herself busy.
However, eventually, cardiac, pulmonary, and renal disease dug a hole the rest of her body couldn't climb out of, and she left us on December 11th–and on a dark and foggy Tuesday morning, as her vitals were crashing, she kept telling the nurses she needed to "get out of this bed so I can go see my husband." Somehow, subject to whatever theology works for you, Mom was telling them, and us, that she was going to see her soulmate, my Dad. And with all my heart, I believe she did.
At Mom's "Refuneral" (we call them that because my son, when he was a kid, said he saw the same people at Reunions and Funerals, so they must be the "same, same, same!"), there were over 100 people. Over twenty of those were my Southwest Airlines Family, many of which had never even met my Mom (although each of them had sure heard stories!!!). That's the kind of support this incredible Company gives its Employees. Six flower sprays or plants were from Southwest Airlines, and when we got home from the burial, the Schedule Planning Department had made sure we had more than enough food for the après-burial dinner. And the dinner was lovely--one Mom would have loved!
There are several points I hoped to make in this blog post. One–my Mom was one feisty, steely, funny woman. Two–my Mom loved my Dad, she loved her boys, and she loved the rest of her family. And we loved her.
Three–next to being a member of my amazing biological family, being a member of the Southwest Airlines Family is one of the biggest blessings in my life. I can't name another Company that supports its Employees during times of trouble on such a personal level. My Mom LUVed Southwest, and my Southwest Family–and they have returned that LUV many-fold.
And the final point…..we'll miss you, Mom. Christmas this year will be a very different animal without you. But all of your Family will remember and love you…forever. Tell Dad we all say hi!
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More responses:
Mike Barnum--my pleasure! Southwest is frequently in touch with the staff of the airports we serve, and they are always their own best advocates. SMF is among the best--and we'll definitely keep SMF-BWI in mind. And don't worry....Pete is *always* involved!
Nicholas, hey, buddy! Long time no talk to! That's a GREAT idea....we'd love to be able to tailor-make our schedule for special events like that, but we're getting more and more able to add flights for special events on short notice, so now that we know about the late Saturday Cal football games we can look at adding flights back down to SoCal for you guys. I hope all is well for you--BTW, don't know if you noticed on a previous blog post of mine, but my son is a married cop now.....and we have over 250 737-700's. My now time flies!
Kim, no, there's no truth to that rumor.....and the fact that Leah will be doing her newscasts with a mouse-ear hat on, humming the music from "It's A Small World," is totally unrelated. :)
Vince, we're looking at adding a second SDF-LAS flight, but we're just not there yet. As for why we have primarily afternoon or evening flights in low-frequency markets out of LAS, our research suggests that traffic leaving LAS prefers to leave in the afternoon, well after hotel checkout time, and would rather spend more time in Vegas and get home late. So, our schedules reflect that. However, almost anything into or out of LAS "works" so occasionally we violate that. If we did add a 2nd LAS-SDF flight, though, it would most likely be in the morning, probably between 9 and 10.
Have a good weekend, everyone!
Bill
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A few schedule-related responses (or....said differently, responses to the few schedule-related comments!):
Steve, with the exception of the Twin Cities, the area you describe is long on land and short on population. Southwest's business model is fairly dependent on high traffic areas, so it may be quite a while before you see us there.
Chris--not soon enough....hopefully the connector will be up and running in 2008. The good news is that we will move Delta off of the E concourse later this week, which should give Southwest more room to consolidate.
Justin N.....wrong. Next year's Series will be the Rangers vs. Astros. (Hey--I can dream too, can't I?)
Mike B., SMF-BWI is one of our more frequently requested nonstop markets. For the time being, our growth is primarily concentrated on short- and medium-haul segments, but you could easily see that market added once we begin to add long-haul markets into the network again.
Tom, the wait in adding FLL-ALB is tied to our re-optimization of Saturday. That's what freed up the aircraft time to add this service. We'd LUV to add it earier--but there literally is no aircraft available to add it. We may miss this year's "snowbird" fliers from ALB to FLL, but hopefully we'll get all the Spring Breakers!
Thanks, everyone!
Bill
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We've "re-loaded the pipeline!" Today Southwest extended our booking inventory out to May 9, 2008. Take heart, Spring Breakers and Easter Hoppers--you are now free to move around the Country!!!!
As usual, we have a few surprises in store for you in the March - May 2008 Schedule. We're increasing our service in a good number of city pairs in March and April, with a number of brand-new nonstop markets. We'll add new service between Phoenix and San Francisco on March 8, a threesome of new nonstop destinations for Philadelphia (Austin, San Antonio, and St. Louis) on March 17, and brand new nonstops between Denver and San Diego effective April 4. In addition, thirteen other markets will receive additional departures during the March - May time period. To view the entire new service press release, click here.
However, a more interesting story (well...from a Schedule Planning perspective, anyway!) about the March Schedule is our Saturday schedule. It's different than Saturday schedules in the past--really, really different. In fact, it is a completely different animal than the schedule that will operate the other six days of each week, with many Saturday flights operating at a different time than the rest of the week, and with a different flight number. I've blogged about our Schedule Optimization progress over the years, but up until now our schedule has been more or less the same across all seven days of the week. Sure, we've cut back some on Saturday morning and Saturday night flights, and again on Sunday mornings--but the rest of the week looked like seven peas in a pod. However, effective with Saturdays in the March Schedule, we've implemented our first reoptimization within the week. Saturday now has a completely different, and more optimal, set of schedule assumptions than the rest of the week.
How will this impact, and benefit, our Customers? Plenty. Travel patterns are significantly different on weekends, particularly on Saturdays, than they are during the rest of the week--yet because of time constraints we weren't able to "rejigger" the schedule sufficiently to give you a Saturday schedule that closely met your specific travel needs. The new March 2008 Saturday schedule, has been designed, as a whole, to do just that: to get you where you want to go, when you want to go, as conveniently as possible. So, besides better Saturday departure times, we're actually adding a number of new, Saturday-only nonstop markets--between Dallas and Harlingen; Manchester and Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood; Reno and Ontario; San Diego and Salt Lake City; and the big winner in the Saturday-only nonstop free-for-all, is Orlando, which gets Saturday service to Omaha, Salt Lake, Oklahoma City, and Tulsa. In addition, we've added extra Saturday departures in over 50 existing nonstop markets--making it easier for you to get to the weekend destinations you want to visit. You could say that starting next March, Southwest's Saturday schedule will be a real "departure!"
We intend to make this twice-weekly optimization strategy a feature of every published schedule, and as our Company gets used to operating a waaaay different schedule on Saturdays, we might make crank up the volume of Saturday-only nonstop markets to better meet the travel needs of our Customers. And who knows....as we more deeply imbed optimization technology into our scheduling processes, we eventually might be able to optimize each day of the week individually to better match Customer need. Of course, we'll need a LOT more experience to make that work....but we'll keep trying!
Happy booking, everyone....and thanks for reading "Nuts About Southwest!"
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10-14-2007
02:04 PM
6 Loves
Guy,
Although your post was a little shy on specifics, it sounds more geared to ontime performance on Fridays rather than overbooking. I took a look at our Friday operations over the past month or so and, yes, things do look like they are running late more often than they're ontime out of Orange County--and the cause looks like it's simply thta the flights are totally, completely, bum-in-every-seat full. While that's a good thing for an airline from a financial sense, it can be *very* difficult to run an ontime operation in a "full off/full on" scenario. Normally, we'd just add more flights to handle the excess demand, but Orange County is a capacity controlled airport--meaning that while we would LUV to ad more flights, we can't, because of the airport's goverment-imposed passenger cap. So, sorry if we've disaapointed recently--but we're always looking for ways to fix the schedule to make it more operable and more ontime. And please don't fire me--then I wouldn't be able to write on this blog!
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10-05-2007
04:09 PM
3 Loves
Good morning, all...more responses to comments.
Laurie...on behalf of the SWARM--thanks!
Steve...I'll pass those comments along to the good folks down the hall at southwest.com.
Randall--THANK YOU for your business and compliments--Southwest is always walking the tightrope between providing excellent Customer Service and financial responsibility. It's a hard, hard median to hit but it's good to know you appreciate our efforts to keep both balanced!
James...dude--ALWAYS nice to hear from you!
Chris, I worked front desk (part-time!) for about 7 years...and in the hotel world, the equivalent of "bumping" someone is called "walking"...and I walked my share of folks. In the hotel world, the science is nowhere nearly as exact, and is much more prone to the over-exuberance of a Front Office Manager to take yet another rack-rate reservation, and hope one of those "church group" rooms doesn't show....but it's a very similar excercise, and one that's getting increasing attention in the world of Yield Management.
jim, I remember "Leisure Class" (I've been in this industry 30 years next year)....and even when that fare/process was in effect, it always seemed to me like Eastern was asking people to bet on whether or not they would inconvenience them or not. Never understood how that fostered Customer loyalty.
And lastly, Joycie....my pleasure! I *never* forget my roots--or my friends. :)
Bill
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10-04-2007
02:55 PM
3 Loves
Good morning, everyone! A few responses to some of the latest comments.
FF--great idea, in theory--but part of the appeal of our high-frequency network is that it allows Customers flexibility, which inherently is going to make no-show rates more volatile. So, we're very hesitant to penalize people for availing themselves to what is one of the most inherently attractive features of our network design!
Scott--the All-Star game in Vegas this year was an interesting study in human behavior. The SWARM did anticipate heavy bookings that day, and acted accordingly. Unfortunately, what they didn't expect was that the post-game parties would last FAR into the night. As a result, a large number of the Customers booked for the first flights out on Monday morning no-showed those flights, then showed up a few hours after their confirmed flights had left to try and get out later on a standby basis. All of those Customers, added to the already huge number of people passing through the airport that day contributed significantly to the problems we experienced.
Rebecca, it's not solely a looking backwards/projecting forwards process. The SWARM is also always looking forward at bookings, and they are usually very quick to see instances where booking patterns look odd, and they immediately start trying to figure out (1) why, and (2) what to do about it. Yes, local SWA folks are the SWARM's best eyes and ears as to what local events might be affecting bookings.
Micah, the vast, vast majority of people who do take denied boarding compensation do so on a voluntary basis--so by asking for volunteers at the gate on the day of departure, de facto we're doing what you're suggesting, without cluttering up the booking process. But interesting concept!
Thanks for the comments, folks....keep 'em coming!
Bill
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10-03-2007
07:22 PM
3 Loves
Bob,
Frank is essentially right on the money. Other carriers have adopted a tightly-enforced policy that if you no-show your reservation, for whatever reason, you forfeit your money. Southwest doesn't--on fares that aren't non-refundable (our walk-up Y fare, for example), even if you no-show, you can get a refund. We do that because, honestly, we understand--like Forrest Gump said, "IT HAPPENS"......whether it's a wreck on the freeway, a meeting that runs late, whatever the reason, we know that sometimes things are beyond your control--so why make you pay for it?
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10-03-2007
09:02 AM
361 Loves
Airline overbooking. It's misjudged, misinterpreted, and mischaracterized. Most people don't understand it–if it were a person, it'd be an odd cross between Donald Trump and Truman Capote. You're not sure you get it, you don't think you like it, but it usually makes for an interesting story and is the butt of jokes by comedians on late-night talk shows. However, overbooking is actually easily explained and understood; is the subject of a huge amount of statistical analysis; and is a bona-fide science in its own right!
Overbooking is the practice of accepting more reservations on a flight than there are seats. Most folks have two questions about overbooking: "why?" and "how?" The "why" is easy to explain–it's an airline's way of counteracting "no-shows," which are Customers who make confirmed reservations for flights and then, for whatever reason, fail to show up. Without overbooking, no-shows would cause almost all fully-booked flights to leave with empty seats. And an airline seat is a completely perishable commodity–when a seat on a flight departs the gate empty, it is lost and can't ever be used. Put another way, the potential for revenue lost due to no-shows could easily undermine Southwest's Low-Fare Leadership…and the art of overbooking helps prevents that.
That's the "why." The "how" is harder to explain, but it is way more interesting. The science surrounding overbooking combines the mathematics of probability and of detailed, historical analysis, mixes in a healthy measure of behavioralistic research, then uses all of that to predict what percentage of bookings for a given flight leg, on a given day, will fail to show up. The numbers of people that book but don't show have very definite trends that, absent a few "except for when this happens…" things thrown in just to keep things exciting, make predicting no-show rates a surprisingly exact and successful (if occasionally stressful) science.
Figuring out no-show rate exceptions--the "except for this" occurrences--can be one of the more challenging aspects of a Revenue Management Analyst's job. Some exceptions are easy to spot--holidays, for example, behave very differently than a normal week, but are usually identifiable and fairly predictable. Note that I said "fairly predictable"…some of the bigger holidays such as Christmas, New Year's, and Independence Day "float" to a different day of the week each year, and because of that they behave differently from year to year, making the job of predicting no-show rates and booking behavior, well, challenging at best!
Other little "GOTCHAS!" can only be explained through the investigative nature of an Analyst. Things like conventions, sports events, snowstorms, even the recent Customs computer outage at LAX that delayed thousands of arriving international Customers can really change no-show rates, sometimes far in advance of the flight, sometimes mere hours before departure. The only way an Analyst can identify seemingly inexplicable reasons behind odd booking and show rate behavior is through keeping close contacts with the no-show-rate trends, local Marketing Managers, fellow Southwest Airlines Employees at the Station…..and, frequently, local newspapers. Time for the Analysts to put on their "Investigative Reporter" hat to get to the bottom of the story!
While managing overbooking is just part of the job of our Warriors on the SWARM (Southwest Airlines Revenue Management) Team, it is a fascinating one that gets far too little attention–and even less appreciation. Their ability to maximize the number of filled seats while minimizing Customer inconvenience is incredible. Their effort is absolutely critical in giving the maximum number of Customers the Freedom to Fly. Keep us flying, SWARM--thank you!
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It's happened again. I have endured yet another "Wanna get away?" moment. Last week, as I was on my way to Love Field on Airport Freeway ("Texas' Ugliest Freeway"), I came upon a multi-car wreck that was over on the right shoulder. Because I was in the right lane, and because you MUST rubberneck as you idle by, I looked at the cars and the people standing around--and saw a lady who, from the back, looked JUST like a friend of mine at work (an Executive Assistant named Judy). We're talking identical twins here, at least from the back. Concerned, I looked at windshields of the wrecked cars and noticed that one of them had a parking lot placard hanging from the rear-view mirror that looked just like the ones that all Southwest Airlines HDQ Employees use. Completely convinced that the lady I saw was Judy, I pulled over to the shoulder, got out, and started walking back to check on her. I approached a policeman who asked what I needed. "I work with that lady over there," I answered, pointing in Judy's direction. He waved me through.
When I was about five feet from her, the lady turned around--and it was SO not Judy. She snarled at me and barked, "CAN I HELP YOU???" My full body blush took about a tenth of a second, and I stammered, "I...uh...thought you were a lady I work with!" "WELL I'M NOT!!!" she hissed. This woman was not a happy camper and, being about as embarrassed as I've been in a while, I mumbled an apology and turned to leave. I looked at the car window that had the placard I thought was a Southwest one hanging in it--and it resembeled ours, but was for a totally different company. As I passed the now-laughing cop, he just shook his head and said, "that'll teach you, won't it?" If this were a Southwest commercial, that's when the frame would freeze and the voice-over would say, "WANNA GET AWAY?"
Judy, I'm very happy it wasn't you, and I feel bad for that really cranky woman that did have the wreck. Still, in hindsight--no, Officer, that won't teach me. I'm not in the least sorry that I stopped--if it had been Judy, at least I could have been there for her. That's what you do for family--if one of them needs help, you help 'em. And, like all Southwest employees, my family has over 33,000 folks in it. I will definitely, positively always try to help a family member when needed. And worst-case scenario? I'll have another funny "Wanna Get Away" moment to share!
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09-07-2007
06:38 PM
2 Loves
Jill,
I'm not sure why you posted this comment as a reply to this particular piece, particularly since we have an ongoing thread about it at the very top of "Nuts About Southwest." Oh--and you might be interested in the MSNBC commentary on the issue. It's quite....ummm..."revealing."
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08-28-2007
03:53 PM
2 Loves
Okay....I looked at the data again (thank you Brook Sorem!)....and it looks like of the two airlines that flew LAX-OAK in 1979, World Airlines didn't report their data, and while PSA reported some traffic--it looks VERY under-reported, given their eight trips in the market. However, I still think my point is valid, which is that back then, LAX-OAK was MUCH smaller than LAX-SFO, and now, through affordable fares and excellent Customer Service, LAX-OAK dominates LAX-SFO. And, come this November....when we bring some LUV to LAX-SFO, we'll once again see the "Southwest Effect" in the market!
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08-27-2007
09:14 PM
6 Loves
Micah,
Traffic is from CAB/DOT Table 8, and airline schedules are from the OAG.....but there is now a question of whether or not PSA or World reported traffic to the CAB back then--I've asked my VP, Pete McGlade, to see if he remembers. He worked for both PSA and AirCal back then--he should know. Update to follow!
Bill
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08-27-2007
08:28 PM
6 Loves
Brian, i remember Pan Am flying SFO-LAX--because I flew them! Back in 1979 they flew a 747-SP leaving SFO at 0700 arriving at about 0830....and I bought a $19 ticket on it because it was (1) cheap and (2) a 747-SP. My former employer didn't fly that market then, and the fare was cheaper than the service charge for a pass! I don't remember where the flight continued onto after LAX but it was a rather "eclectic" group.
The gate area they left from at SFO was the old PSA "rotunda" at SFO that is no more. And although Southwest Airlines Flight Attendants can get out drinks, peanuts, and 2nds on drinks between Northern and Southern California....the Pan Am Flight Attendants were "unable to provide beverage service due to the short duration of the flight." Ahem....okay, whatever!
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08-27-2007
01:59 PM
571 Loves
As part of the festivities celebrating our reentry into San Francisco International Airport (SFO) this Monday, Southwest Airlines also announced that we're going to supplement our initial SFO service by adding eight daily nonstops between SFO and Los Angeles Int'l Airport (LAX) effective November 4. This will supplement our existing 20 daily roundtrips (which operate on the hour or half hour all day long) between LAX and Oakland International Airport (OAK), which is quite literally just across the bay from SFO. While SFO isn't a "brand new" airport for Southwest (we served the airport for 19 years prior to discontinuing service in early 2001 due to congestion and cost issues), we've never flown between SFO and LAX. And it's about time–the SFO (and OAK) to LAX market has an interesting history.
Because I am a hopeless airline geek, I took a look at industry data going all the way back to 1979, which is roughly when I got into this insane industry. Back then, the SFO-LAX air passenger market was the largest in the country, with 49 daily flights on nine airlines with about 7,400 seats a day going back and forth, carrying roughly 1,520 people each day paying an average of $122 in 1997 dollars. Remember, back then, load factors were lower, and there were lots more connections going on, so the percentage of folks flying nonstop from origin to destination was much lower. By comparison, LAX to OAK in 1979 was served by 10 flights on 2 airlines, with about 1,800 seats serving only about **seven** (yes, SEVEN) local passengers flying between the two airports per day each way, and they paid an average of $139 in 1997 dollars. I guess that market was all connecting passengers.
Fast forward to now. SFO-LAX is far, far down the list of largest markets. While still large, today five airlines offer 37 daily departures with about 4,600 seats a day (and of the 9 that flew the route in 1979, only 3 survive)….but it serves only 1,100 passengers a day, who paid an average of $127–a roughly 32% decrease in the size of the market with no increase in average fare. Compare that with LAX-OAK, where there are now about 3,100 seats on 28 daily flights by 3 airlines (and neither of the two that flew the route in 1979 are still in business). However, even though LAX-OAK still has fewer seats than LAX-SFO, it carries nearly 1,700 local passengers each day (far more than LAX-SFO), who pay an average of just $87–a savings of $40 over LAX-SFO!
So, the traveling public has shifted in large numbers from LAX-SFO in favor of LAX-OAK. Wonder why? (Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?) It's fare driven…and the fare driver has been Southwest Airlines. Note the average fare difference between LAX-SFO and LAX-OAK. While I won't make predictions here…if I were a bettin' man, now that Southwest is flying between LAX and SFO, I'd bet that the fares in that market will drop like Brittany Spears' approval rating. We will bring our pricing to the market, which will give far more people the Freedom to Fly….and we'll do just as we have everywhere else in this Country–grow the market!
Welcome back, SFO, we've missed you….and welcome to the family, SFO-LAX!
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08-08-2007
10:02 AM
335 Loves
In the key of G-Flat-minor, please, to the tune of Gershwin's "Summertime"....
Summertime, And the airport is busy, Carts are tumpin', 'Cause the luggage's too high, Let's check our bags, And not carry 'em onboard, Then we'll breeze through the checkpoint, And off we'll fly…..
It's another busy travel summer, and while I've been out and about the crowded airports and large amounts of carryon luggage made me think of the "Porgy and Bess" opener, hence my erstwhile rewrite of the first stanza (my personal favorite rendition of this classic was Fantasia Barrino's performance on "American Idol" a couple of seasons ago).
With the peak travel season upon us, I thought it might be a good time to remind everyone that checking luggage is the easiest way to get your bags from point A to point B. It embodies that most American of work ethics–get somebody else to do the work. 🙂 Southwest's helpful Customer Service Agents and Ramp Agents will take excellent care of your luggage, and will work like crazy to have it available for you in the bag claim area quickly when you arrive at your destination. Besides, checking your bags means you don't have to carry/drag/push/wheel them around. No bags to deal with means you can focus all your attention on whatever you want–from trying to catch the eye of the attractive fellow voyager in the security line next to you, to keeping the kids from running from gate C18, where you are, to gate C481, where the nearest ice cream vendor is.
We've had other blog posts about the "correct" way to check luggage, most recently Bert Stevens' post from last month (click here for the link), so no need to replicate that information here. Just follow the instructions and try it–believe me, checking luggage is simple, it's easy, and the sacroiliac you save may be your own.
Happy travels, everyone!
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08-02-2007
04:36 PM
2 Loves
Fantastic--thanks, Brian! Some of the other folders are also fascinating. What a great site!!!!
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Southwest gives me MANY Freedoms--but if you look at them as a whole, Southwest gives me the Freedom to maximize my life. Here, I'm allowed--no, I'm encouraged--to be passionate about what I do, to contribute to our shared success in ways without boundries, to learn without ceasing, and through it all, to enjoy myself like crazy. The net effect is almost akin to "perpetual motion"--my Southwest Freedoms create an incredible energy that then flows into every other aspect of my life, which in turn creates even more energy that gets directed back into my work. I'm sure that somehow this violates some law of Physics, but for me its helped create a life full of satisfaction, fun, and LUV!
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Today, Southwest released our November, 2007 Schedule, and folks that travel to or from New Orleans are going to be particularly happy–1,096 seats a day happy, in fact! Effective November 4th, we're reinstating our often-asked-about nonstop service between New Orleans and Birmingham, with three flights each business day. Besides the new Birmingham service, we're listening to the marketplace and to our Customers by adding flights in a number of markets to and from New Orleans, with more flights between Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport and Dallas, Houston, Orlando, and Las Vegas. A thousand more leather seats each day into and out of "The Big Easy" is definitely reason to "laissez bon temp rouler – let the good times roll!"
In addition to the new service to New Orleans, we're adding lots more "shush" to the slopes of the Rockies by adding 14 departures each day from Denver, including new nonstop service between Denver and Albuquerque, Austin, Amarillo, Oklahoma City, and Seattle. The Amarillo and Oklahoma City service will offer one-stop, direct same-plane service between Denver and Dallas Love Field, making travel between the two "Big D's" that much easier. This will bring us up to 56 daily departures from Denver International!
The added service at New Orleans and Denver is part of a much broader schedule adjustment coming in November, in which we'll eliminate some flights and add others–all designed to improve Southwest's profitability and operational performance. In all, 80 markets all across our network will see flights added or, in some cases, decreased. Seven completely new nonstop markets will be added to the Southwest system, while we will discontinue nonstop service in seven others (however, in each of these, we'll continue to offer direct or connecting service). At least in terms of the number of markets impacted, this makes the November 4th schedule change the largest and most comprehensive in Southwest's history–and this network re-optimization is possible by use of our "garage-o-mizer."
I'm eager for you to take a look (and buy a ticket!) at our new November Schedule. I look forward to your comments, and as always, thanks for reading Nuts About Southwest!
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06-19-2007
03:46 PM
8 Loves
Cathy, and all,
June 27th is the date.....10:00 a.m., Herb time. See link below for confirmation. Happy booking!
http://www.southwest.com/travel_center/
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05-11-2007
02:37 PM
387 Loves
This August…..the Southwest Airlines route map will no longer be "Sans Francisco."
Just as we promised, we're bringing our LUV Jets back to San Francisco International Airport (SFO)! Effective on Sunday, August 26th, Southwest begins nonstop service between SFO and San Diego, Las Vegas, and Chicago Midway, with direct or connecting service to 46 additional airports from sea to shining sea. We'll offer eight flights each weekday between SFO and San Diego; seven each weekday between SFO and Las Vegas; and three each day between SFO and Chicago Midway. Southwest's SFO service will operate from Terminal 1, Concourse B, gates 25 and 31. (Click here for more details.)
No airline LUVs California like Southwest does, and our new SFO service means there's more of us to LUV. These 18 new departures from SFO, combined with our 148 weekday departures from Oakland International Airport and our 80 flights from San Jose's Norman Mineta International, mean that by the end of the summer we'll have nearly 250 flights each business day from the Bay Area–including 137 departures to Southern California alone!
Fares and schedules are now available, so happy booking…and have a great weekend, everyone!
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04-26-2007
06:26 PM
4 Loves
UPDATE! Besides now being open for sale out through November 2, 2007, you can now access information about tentative upcoming schedule release dates at southwest.com!
http://www.southwest.com/hotfares/
http://www.southwest.com/hotfares/hotfares2.html
http://www.southwest.com/travel_center/
Happy booking, everyone!
Bill
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04-26-2007
06:20 PM
4 Loves
Miranda,
Flights from Houston/Hobby to New York were operated by ATA Airlines, our codeshare partner. We have no "say-so" in what markets they serve (or not serve).
Bill
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04-24-2007
02:37 PM
5 Loves
Happy Tuesday, everyone!
Steve (and Ding! boy), patience, please....after all, it took us 37 years to become the largest airline in America. Completely taking over this country's air travel market will take just a while longer. :)
Lois, right now, the planned release date for the November - early January time frame is June 28--again, we get down to just about 120 days of inventory, but in our new, more "expansive" way of managing inventory, we'll go up to 202 days of bookable service. See? We've changed!!
Brent---ummm....if I understand your point correctly, it's way, way out of my field of expertise. My group gets the schedule out there for sale. Fares and specific fare-class availability is the work of the Revenue Management and Pricing group, and is usually based on (and reflective of) demand. I'll foward your comment to them.
Tom, we almost always open new schedules at 10:00 a.m. "Herb Time". As for a Ding! notification--I'm not sure, but it sure sounds like an excellent idea. I will ask around with my friends in the Interactive Marketing group.
Have a DING! day, everyone!
Bill
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04-20-2007
05:28 AM
5 Loves
Greetings, all! Sorry I haven't responded until now--I've been out of town with limited access to email.
First, to Will, Johnathan Thomas and Miranda....the information went out, as scheduled, on Wednesday, but many Agents didn't see it until today. So--sorry 'bout that! But they have it now....and if you've read the above, you now know that as of April 26h we'll extend our booking window out to November 2.
Paco, I hope the info is in a place that is easy for the Agents to find. If not--let us know! Now go give Linda Schwarz and Tammie Flynn some LUV from me!
USS Blog Boy....thanks, and BTW I'm sorry I missed your celebration when you arrived home in ABQ. I arrived at the gate at Love Field just as the plane was pulling away--*OOOPS!* However, I'm glad you were surprised--hope you had a great visit home--and appreciate your support!
And to everyone else....guys, honestly, I didn't take all of the hubris and furor from the last post personally. (Well, okay, I took one of them personally, but I got over it really fast) I'm glad you all were honest enough to let us know we weren't meeting your needs--and, as you can see, we took that feedback to heart and changed things to make it easier and more convenient for you to fly us. And that's really what it's all about--getting your business, keeping you happy, and achieving total and complete global domination. bwaHaHAHAHAHAH!!!!! (kidding! just kidding about that last part!)
Thanks, everyone......keep booking! :)
Bill
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04-18-2007
09:25 AM
589 Loves
Admittedly, while that's not quite as catchy as Caesar's famous Latin phrase "veni, vidi, vici" ("I came, I saw, I conquered"), it pretty well sums up the aftermath of my "Why Can't I Make Reservations Further In Advance?" blog piece. In it, I explained the rationale behind Southwest's policy of not allowing reservations more than 180 days in advance, and why we on occasion will drop to 90 days of bookable "inventory" before we extend the booking window back out to 180 days. Talk about sticking your head into a hornet's nest! We got 274 replies, and from the tone of some of them we quickly realized that, at least for some of you, a few of our policies were out of step with your travel needs. So...we're changing! We heard, from both Customers and Employees alike, that you didn't like our policy of not publishing the dates on which we plan to extend the schedule. No problem! We now make the tentative, planned date of the next schedule extension available to our Reservations Agents, and in short order this information will be prominently displayed at southwest.com. Bear in mind that the planned schedule extension date will always be subject to change, as we have to "tweak" the date every now and then, due to forces beyond our control–so while you can use the date as a planning tool, please check back occasionally to make sure the date doesn't change. As they say in the commercials."but wait! There's more!" Effective immediately, we will consider 120 days of bookable inventory as our minimum when getting our schedule ready for peak travel periods, such as summer or the Holiday Season. I can't promise that we will never go under this minimum for those heavy demand periods again, but I can promise that we will do everything in our power to make sure you always have more than 120 days of available flights to choose from. I can promise that it will take something almost cataclysmic to prevent that from happening. For other, less heavy travel periods, we will try to keep a minimum of 100 days of inventory available for your booking pleasure. On the other "end" of the booking window, we're going to push the maximum available inventory from 180 days to between 190 and 200 days of inventory–and once again, we'll pay particular attention to making peak travel periods available for booking as far in advance as possible. So there you have it. We heard you, loud and clearly, and we reacted. I realize some of you wish we would extend the booking window even further out, and while we won't do that this "go-round" we will continue to study the issue and may, at a later time, choose to do so. In any event, I hope these changes make planning your travel on Southwest easier. Like all airlines, Southwest appreciates your business–but unlike other airlines, we LUV you, and we appreciate your honesty! Thanks for all of the responses and thank you for reading "Nuts About Southwest!"
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